Reviews

How the U.S. Can Survive Its World Cup Group of Death

12/10/2013

Omam-Biyik in 1990. Why not be the jumper rather than the jumpee?

Taking their cue from Jürgen Klinsmann’s evaluation of “the worst of the worst” for the American schedule, fans are assuming the U.S. will get ushered out of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil without winning or drawing or maybe even scoring.

Having covered the past eight World Cups, I would like to note that the matches have yet to be played – and that group play is always full of revelations.

Why not be one of those teams that upset the favorite? Why not make your own luck? Why not catch players before they are acclimated? Why not be better than anybody expected? It has happened. Every four years it has happened.

The first thing to remember about the World Cup is that the best teams come into the tournament with the most players chewed up by the insatiable club schedules, including the Champions League. Outsiders can have fresh legs and fresh attitudes – very often worth a victory in the first round.

Without even discussing the American team here, let’s look at a few weird and wonderful things that have happened in the first match of group play:

In Spain in 1982, Algeria stunned West Germany, 2-1 – still one of the great upsets in World Cup history. The West Germans used a disgraceful 1-0 waltz victory over their friends from Austria in the third match, so both teams could advance past Algeria. FIFA later tightened the rules against manipulation like that, but Algeria will always have the pride of that upset.

In Mexico in 1986, in the opening match in Azteca, Bulgaria tied the defending champions of Italy, 1-1, in the 85th minute. Then again, Italy almost always has a wretched first round – part of its charm.

In the very first match in Italy in 1990, Francois Omam-Biyik of Cameroon outjumped Roberto Sensini of Argentina for a header goal in the 67th minute for a 1-0 victory. (The Argentina coach yanked Sensini two minutes later.) Was this a huge upset? Not really. Ancient Roger Milla helped Cameroon become the first African team to reach the quarterfinals, and Argentina reached the finals.

In 1994, Ireland beat Italy, 1-0, in Giants Stadium in the first match. Once again, Italy had to stagger into the knockout round, eventually losing the final when two injured stars missed in the shootout.

In 1998, in France, talented Spain sauntered into a first match against Nigeria, and was out-run, 3-2, by Bora Milutinovic’s team. Spain did not reach the knockout round, its glory still a generation away.

In 2002 in South Korea, Zinedine Zidane pulled a thigh muscle in an exhibition against the aggressive Reds, and the lethargic defending champion, France, was stunned by its former colony, Senegal, 1-0, in the opening match, and did not survive the first round.

In 2006, Trinidad & Tobago, in its long-delayed World Cup debut, held Sweden to a 0-0 draw in the first round in Germany. When bonuses did not materialize, the Soca Warriors did not score in two straight losses.

In 2010, France, England and Italy all staggered to draws in their first matches in South Africa, and only England made it into the knockout round. All three were exposed as weary, disinterested or, in France’s case, mutinous.

From my eight World Cups, I have learned that national teams are all-star aggregations, thrown together a few weeks before the opening match. Very often, African teams have talent but struggle with financial and logistical issues. The U.S. cannot think about the losses to Ghana in 2006 and 2010 and must get 3 points from the first match. Then it will have to hold Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal to a draw, somehow. After that comes Germany, always talented and never nonchalant.

The U.S. will have to hope the other teams chew each other up in the first round. In the most recent World Cup, four teams advanced with 4 points.

(http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/archive/southafrica2010/standings.)

The great thing about having a former champion like Klinsmann as coach is that he can, without boring his players, remind them of disasters and upsets he has seen in the World Cup. The first match is vital. The schedule:

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/matches/index.html

Now if the U.S. can arrange a transplant of its back line.

Your thoughts?

Diop outruns Petit in the opener in Seoul, 2002.

Thor A. Larsen

12/10/2013 04:29:23 am

With the overall improvement in recent years with US soccer and US players, specifically, I am optimistic of a very good showing of the American team. As noted in recents blogs on sports, team psychology and coaches are very important ingredients for winning and I believe this coach will be provide that added that intangble asset. My most memorable experience watching World Cup finals was in 1982 when Italy beat Germany. My Italian heritage wife was so excited as she never watched soccer before and we were with my German-American friend and wife who were ardent Germany fans. Point being that unlike any other sporting matches outside the Olympics, World Cup tournament stimulates the most ardent national passions. I really look forward to it and that US does very well. It will be easy to root for the US, as Norway did not make the cut!

John Wilcockson

12/10/2013 05:37:01 am

... and don't forget, George, that USA beat England 1-0 in group play the last time the World Cup was held in Brazil in 1950. As for the busy Euro schedules, I think they will help the U.S. team with players such as Tim Howard—what a great game he played last Sunday against Arsenal!

George Vecsey

12/10/2013 07:01:27 am

John, I am honored to hear from the great cycling writer. We did not cover the 1950 World Cup, did we? I got to meet Harry Keough, the defender, in St. Louis a few years ago, very sweet guy. The U.S. papers did not believe the score, and attributed the victory to Your Lads. Good point -- anything can happen. Best, GV

Ed Martin

12/10/2013 11:26:00 am

Hooray! Nice intro to book--looking forward to it. Soccer Rules!

(no mention of Dolan, Knicks, Nets. Nirvana.).

Roy Edelsack

12/11/2013 01:42:02 am

And, since GV is too much of a gentleman to mention it himself, a nice segue into mentioning that "Eight World Cups" is available for pre-order on Amazon (Kindle version too!).

John McDermott

12/10/2013 12:48:22 pm

While on paper, and as of today, it looks like the US has a terribly difficult task in front of it, I, like you, know all too well that what we think today can end up being very different from what happens when the games are actually played. The biggest factor that can alter possibilities is that of fitness. What if Ronaldo suffers an injury for Real Madrid that weakens him or keeps him out of games in the first round? Suddenly Portugal look a lot more beatable. What if the US arrives in Brazil with, say, Jozy Altidore on a scoring tear and Landon Donovan motivated and in great shape? What if Jürgen finds the right combination of four defenders to put in front of Howard(or Guzan, why not?) and they prove to be strong in defense, finally gelling as a unit when it really counts? All possible. And forget what happened in the past with Ghana(I'm sure Jürgen will be hammering home the point of the irrelevance of old results, apart from their usefulness as a learning tool). Ghana are eminently beatable(at least that's the belief that Jürgen will be trying to instill in his charges, and it's also probably quite true). I've heard two prominent former German national team stars-Michael Ballack and Bodo Ilgner-say that the USA game will be very difficult for Germany, in large part because of Jürgen. I think Ballack and Ilgner probably know what they are talking about. Germany are a very, very good team. But they are beatable too. In my view, there is a range of possibilities ahead for the US team, from three-and-out to playing with style and winning the group. That's why they play the games-to find out who really is better on that day. At this point only a fool would be "sure" of what's going to happen next summer in Brazil. I'm certainly not.

Andrew Tansey

12/10/2013 09:11:19 pm

My most profound lack of insight is that USA are not the only side drawn into the Group of Death. I have not taken the time to research it, but what are Germany, Ghana and Portugal saying about THEIR draws?

Aside from the conspiracy theories - not only the competition but also the travel schedule - I think attention the draw has gotten in the USA is a good sign about our advancement as a football nation. The Gloom of Doom resembles that ever present - without there ever having to be a particular reason for such GoD - in one of the other two English speaking teams in the tournament, England, of course. By the way, at The Public Theater on Monday, thanks to my 1/3 (only one generation to work with so far), Men In Blazers spoke of a clear conspiracy against all three English speaking teams, to get Australia into the mix. Not sure when that podcast will be available, but they seem to be more popular than Messi in the 20-something generation of soccer fans. http://meninblazers.com/

How can we express well enough our respect, admiration, gratitude and fondness for Sepp Blatter?

Andy Kusi-Appiah

2/2/2014 04:36:02 pm

"Ghana are eminently beatable(at least that's the belief that Jürgen will be trying to instill in his charges, and it's also probably quite true)."

The above is very true...what is also true is that the USA beatable, and for that matter all the 32 nations participating in the world cup - The ball is round indeed.

The most important thing is who "appears' to play on that day.

I wish both teams the very best in this world cup of death.

Andy Kusi-Appiah

2/2/2014 04:39:11 pm

Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon (just to name only a few) are English speaking teams in the world cup as well.

There are more than 3 English speaking teams int he world cup.

Andy Kusi-Appiah

2/2/2014 04:39:35 pm

Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon (just to name only a few) are English speaking teams in the world cup as well.

There are more than 3 English speaking teams int he world cup.

Andy Kusi-Appiah

2/2/2014 04:40:10 pm

Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon (just to name only a few) are English speaking teams in the world cup as well.

There are more than 3 English speaking teams int he world cup.

George Vecsey

12/11/2013 12:44:49 am

If there were not a Sepp Blatter, we would have to invent one.,
GV

Alan Rubin link

12/11/2013 05:06:43 am

It is refreshing to see a discussion on the US World Cup draw that is not all "doom and gloom", with many excellent reasons for otimism being expressed.

John McDermott correctly addressed the potential of the USMNT getting through the draw. It is a positive that the round begins with Ghana and finishes with Germany.

The team's talent pool is probably the deepest it has every been and with a collectively high level of experience.

The book, "The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Socceris Wrong" was previously referred to in the Knicks-Nets topic. Through out the book authors David Sally and Chris Anderson relate statistics to the randomness of soccer. They authors concluded that soccer was a gome of 50% skill and 50% luck. Any game can suddenly turn on a lucky break. Teams being dominated for 89 minutes can win on their only shot of the game. This is an interesting book to read as they debunk many of soccer's cliches.

A major criticism of the draw is the excessive and unequal travel requirmentas. Also, the top eight teams should each be seeded into the one of the eight groups. The rankings should be based upon current perormance, or at least should not go back too far.

My favorite George Vecsey quote sums up the unpredictability of World Cup soccer, "I don’t know any other sport so beloved by the people who play it, or the people who watch it.
Everybody in the stadium understands that at any given moment something amazing can happen, out of nothing."

I expect the US to surprise the experts.

Ed Martin

12/11/2013 09:02:00 am

Alan, If Lehigh could beat Muhlenberg 2-0 with you in goal then anything can happen!

Alan Rubin link

12/11/2013 09:51:59 am

Ed--Thanks for your kind show of confidence.

I can assure you that am not on Klinsmann's short goalie list, or any of his lists. However, that is only because of my age.

Brian Savin

12/11/2013 01:11:50 pm

I've only seen one game and part of another, but I see a difference of confidence. This team at least seems to play as if it expects to win. What the refs do to them once the competition starts in earnest i'd rather not think about and hope for the best.

Charlie Accetta link

12/11/2013 02:41:30 pm

GV - I love it that the USA is regularly qualifying to participate in the Big Dance but what I'm reading here, from you and the comment contributors, are several versions of The Ugly Duckling. Real life usually follows the script. This one says we don't survive. I'd be very happy to be proven wrong. I just don't think this team has enough firepower to offset the problems we've seen lately at the back end.

George Vecsey

12/12/2013 12:10:04 am

Charlie, there you go again, inserting logic into my theorizing. The four players -- Howard, Donovan, Altidore and Dempsey -- who pulled off the 91st minute goal against Algeria in 2010 are likely to be back. But four years older. GV

Alan Rubin link

12/13/2013 06:05:22 am

Matthew Doyle's MLSsoccer.com article is featured in latest Howler Magazine Bulletin. It is a good summary of the USNMT’s progress to date and potential for the future.

I do not have Doyle’s concern that Klinsmann’s “another level” is a nebulous, undefined target--

“Scan almost any interview Jurgen Klinsmann has given in the two-and-a-half years he’s been head coach of the US men’s national team and you’ll see the same pair of words: “another level.” Another level is where Klinsmann is trying to take his team, but it’s a nebulous, undefined target. Does he mean a specific stage in the World Cup, somewhere as late in the competition as the semifinals? Or is his goal simply to get out of the group, but to do it while playing better, more attractive soccer – to force an evolution in the American style from “try hard, run fast” to something approaching tika-taka?
Wherever that next level is, what kind of progress can we discern from the German’s first two-and-a-half years in charge?”

There is an advantage to an undefined target in that it can be a moving one. No matter how many levels the team reaches, there are always more to achieve. This avoids the tendency to let down when a goal is achieved.

http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2013/12/12/armchair-analyst-four-more-years-jurgen-klinsmann-its-another-level?utm_source=Howler+Bulletin&utm_campaign=1625abb703-Howler+Bulletin+2&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b777a4cdd1-1625abb703-324005897.