I Bet Italy Qualifies for the World Cup in 2026

11/13/2017

Has Gigi Buffon Roared Out the Anthem for the Last Time?

(Great piece by Jason Horowitz on tristezza in Italy.)
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/world/europe/italy-world-cup.html
* * *

Hoping to feel some enthusiasm for the tottering Italian soccer team, I emailed a couple of Italian friends early Monday with the message: Forza Italia!!!

One wrote:
“Thanks George, but I have already switched sides to Morocco.
“We do not deserve to qualify at ALL!
“Next June Italy-USA: Disappointed Cup!”

The other wrote:
“Thank you Giorgio. But we are pretty bad.”

(My two friends are journalists. Journalists know stuff.)

They were preparing me for the sodden performance in San Siro Stadium in Milan on Monday – a 0-0 return draw in the playoff, after the 1-0 defeat in Stockholm last week, which means Sweden is going to the 2018 World Cup in Russia next year. And Italy is not.

To me, a World Cup does not seem like a World Cup unless Italy is in it. They hadn’t missed since 1958. They won the first one I covered in Spain in 1982 and another one in Germany in 2006 and when I think of the World Cup I think of those beautiful azure jerseys and the merry tarantella of a national anthem.

I was in dank Milan in 1993 when Italy had to get a result to get past Portugal in a similar ansia – and they manufactured a goal out of habit to qualify for the Stati Uniti the next year.

I love Italian ansia – but not so much when they stop producing genius.

Italy had almost nothing on Monday, even though the Italian papers tried to conjure up memories of Pirlo and Baresi and Baggio and Cannavaro and Totti and Del Piero and Rossi and all the other stalwarts of World Cups past.

Ghosts don’t play. That was the real Gigi Buffon, grimacing in pursuit of his sixth World Cup, which would have been a record, but Sweden knew how to hold a one-goal differential for 90-plus minutes. Bravo.

However, there is hope for Italy, just as there is hope for other squads gearing up for their own Disappointed Cup next June when the lads will not have anything more pressing to do.

The terror of these November final play-in series will be diluted in 2026 when the actual World Cup final tournament is expanded from 32 to 48 squads.

This is the gimmick (even worse than baseball's bogus designated-hitter rule) from the masters of FIFA, the world soccer body, known for its scandals, its sweetheart TV contracts. Just as in the game on the field, the names change but the uniform numbers remain the same.

The lords of FIFA have decreed: let there be 48 teams. Good for business. More chance for even ponderous giants like the USA or stale dynasties like Italy and the Netherlands to slip through.

The more the merrier. It’s good for business. Never mind the rank fear that goes through countries like the USA, which was just getting used to qualifying, and Italy, which was tied with Germany for most appearances with 18, but now Germany, the defending champion, goes through with 19, on merit.

So the USA now tries to find a way to include its huge Latino population without families having to pay a fortune just to play the world game, and without parents having to drive children to practices at all hours, many miles away.

Meanwhile: Italy tries to rediscover the moves and passes and laser shots so blatantly missing on Monday, raising the question: Is Italy the new England? (Meaning, well past it.)

Face it: competitive decline means little in soccer, since the barons of FIFA poured rank rain water into the olive oil of the World Cup.

Meantime, pick your team: Morocco, Tunisia, Iceland. Out of 32 teams going to Russia next year, that’s pretty cool. Although the burghers of FIFA may still find a way to screw that up, in the name of democracy. Or viewers.

Altenir Silva

11/14/2017 06:46:58 am

Dear George: I think the Germans will be the supremacy of soccer for many years ahead.
Talk soon - Altenir (from Brazil)

bruce

11/14/2017 08:39:56 am

george,

seems italy has lost its goal scorers.

i thought being shutout in the first game might be a problem for them, but believed they'd be able to score at least one at home.

i've thought for a number of years now that germany was really the top country in the world, not brazil.

true, they're tied with italy for second after brazil for the most world championships--where countries have to play other countries to call themselves that, eh--but the germans always seem to be the mix no matter how they seem to be playing going into the world cup.

might've had an extra champeenship or two if they weren't two germanys tho i understand why francois mauriac said what he said.

and i believe the fifa bunch would be more properly be called burgers.

bruce

Andy Tansey

11/14/2017 02:01:41 pm

Replying to Bruce's reply to mine, below (because there's a "Reply" button here but not below). I meant to include a cheeky comment wondering if Gigi or another Italian might complain about the Swedes "playing like cowards" and get kicked off the team!

George Vecsey

11/14/2017 09:30:16 am

Dear Altenir and Bruce: My international wing has checked in -- Brazil and Canada. You both are right, Germany upgraded its act a decade ago (when Klinsmann left and Jogi Low took over, but even more important, they identified young talent in regional centers. You can do that in Germany -- much harder in US (soccer, tennis, etc.) Germany always played the game right....never quits.....rarely loses its mind on the pitch. I love Italy, I love Brazil, I loved the France of Zidane, but I have come to realize that Germany is like the old Yankees --- who always threw to the right base who always went from first to third on a hit when at all possible. They're leaving everybody behind. GV

Andy Tansey

11/14/2017 11:43:12 am

Though we've not met in person, George, I enjoy the pursuit of common interests and small-world intersections from roots in Queens, etc., but two passions where we find ourselves at opposite ends are the Mets and the Azzurri, the two teams I most love to hate. (Disclosure: my mother emigrated from Italy to become a Dodgers' fan until they broke her and your hearts.) I thoroughly enjoyed the win by Sweden! I wonder how the combined club payrolls of the two teams compare.

The Swedes are so well organized. By no means catenaccio, it is a beautiful sight when the camera pans out and shows a broader view of their formation moving like a single organism, as if by telepathy. However, that was not enough to overcome a clearly superior technical side from Italy. Italy prevailed on two penalty shouts to one. I wonder if referee Lahoz now requires protection.

I'll take the liberty of addressing a few of your points.
- I don't think there's too much rank fear in the USA over failing to qualify. Far too much of this country is incapable of appreciating anything from away, and so soccer doesn't matter nearly enough.
- The expansion to 48 will be fairer for Europe, the world's strongest confederation. The USA deserved not to qualify, and from a pure football perspective, the tournament will be no worse (other than the appetites of fair-weather USA fans and their revenue) for USA's absence. The Netherlands and Italy could be capable of winning the tournament, and in 2026, I bet they qualify.
- England may be the new Italy! The absence of USA broadens my horizons on teams to favor, and with so many Spurs playing with England, Belgium and France, I am excited!

bruce

11/14/2017 12:22:30 pm

andy,

some good points there.

I agree that many of the 'folks' don't really care about 'far away' and soccer is a cult sport to many north americans.

and, as for the swedes, they did the same thing to the American women last year.

and, as you, I haven't met George, but he seems like an old friend by now.

I first emailed him 10-12 years ago when I was living in japan because he seemed to be more international in outlook than many of his compatriots.

bruce

bruce

11/14/2017 09:59:07 am

George,

my description of the germans in soccer, and in general I guess, is relentless.

my first wife was born in northern bavaria, but I digress again.

do you remember the famous lede from one of the fleet street papers when England beat west Germany in 1966 at Wembley for their only world cup?

jon stewart, who I believe played soccer in university, made me laugh during the last world cup.

his show, here anyway, aired at 11 pm.

the day Germany hammered brazil 7-1, stewart was doing his opening segment when he suddenly stopped and cupped his hand to his ear, as if receiving info, looked into camera and said, 'Germany's just scored again'.....

seemed about right.

bruce

Altenir Silva

11/14/2017 04:55:22 pm

Dear Bruce: When the Brazil lost 7X1 for the Germany in the World Cup 2014, it didn’t hurt more than the team that lost to the Italy in 1982. That team from 82 was the best team of all the Cups. While this team from 2014 was a team scaled with dark interests, therefore, they deserved to lose.
Best. Altenir (from Brazil)

Joshua Rubin

11/14/2017 11:42:34 am

Now that Italy is out, the football match to watch might be the one being played right now in Brooklyn.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/fifa-trial-set-to-begin-in-n-y-with-the-trappings-of-a-mob-case

bruce

11/14/2017 03:39:46 pm

andy,

well, now you're quoting porn stars......

bruce

Alan Rubin

11/15/2017 04:03:01 pm

I was looking forward to watching Gigi Buffon in his last World Cup. It would have been a fitting finale to a remarkable career. He always seemed cool regardless of the pressure.

I’m not sure how I feel about the expansion from 32 to 48. There are 208 FIFA listed countries so the participation of teams would increase from 15 to 23 percent. Many very talented teams miss out either by upsets or the quirk of their qualification bracket. It would be nice to see more of the better ones get in.

The World Cup is not soccer at its very best. Many key players and their national teams are not fully rested after the long and grueling professional seasons, usually August through early May with a lot of non-league play added in.

The level of play is probably much higher in the multi-country qualifying tournaments such as the Champions League and the UEFA one just below it.

George is correct to address the need for the USA to seek out and develop players from the Latino population. This should also include all minorities, inner-city kids and those who cannot afford the pay-to-play system (or chose not to). Although progress is being made in many areas, it is not a national priority. We do not have a soccer culture of kids playing pickup games without adult supervision the way George and I played baseball as youngsters.

It is no surprise that Germany has become a perennial powerhouse. Their national youth program is free and the best coaches are assigned to the youngest players. They correctly believe that good habits should begin early. They also are aware that only a few will advance up the training pyramid to reach the pinnacle. The Germans provide top level coaching to all youngster in their programs regardless of their ability in the belief that they are entitled to be the best that they can be.

The USA has many excellent avenues for players to develop including top quality youth clubs, college, MLS youth academies to name a few, but access is limited due to the high cost. Among all the hand wringing, finger pointing and soul searching in the aftermath of the USMNT’s elimination form the 2018 World Cup, many good ideas have been suggested. One is to subsidize youth training including college scholarships for qualified players in need of financial help.

Another is to increase the quality of competition at all levels by introducing the relegation system. It would take a while before MLS would even consider it, but pressure could be applied from below. Rank all the varied professional and semi-pro leagues by ability and create a European model. It would add the excitement of teams trying to move up or avoid moving down towards the end of the season. All professional sports in the USA have at least half of their teams out of playoff contention by mid-season.

The goal would be to provide excellent competition at every level of play.

I also agree with those who propose keeping youth club travel to a minimum. Players as young as eight and nine spend too much time in cars. A nine year old goalkeeper who I coach recently had two away games in two different states on the same day. He loves to play, but he and his mother are exhausted at the end of the day.

Clubs use the excuse that they need to travel to offer better completion for their teams. I would rather see a greater effort in improving the quality of all the local clubs. I’m not sure that I would favor this, but one possibility would be to create inter club teams based upon ability and match them up for competitive games and keep them local.

I’m working with local youth organizations to provide fields for youngsters to play soccer on their own. They would select the teams and draw up the rules for the day. Coaches would be there to provide help if asked. This would be akin to free play in a school yard.

In spite of all the shortcomings of USA soccer, I believe that we are in a good place. Youth player and fan bases are growing. So much of the current criticism is that more Americans are paying attention. The national youth teams are performing well.

The USMNT’s 1-1 draw with Portugal was an excellent example. A group of youngsters under tremendous pressure to do well-did. The USMNT has been reluctant for too long to bring up its better youngsters. The opportunity to learn and grow should take precedent over the fear of failure.

A few takeaways from today’s reporting of the game in the NYT. McKennie’s goal was a masterpiece of deception, but his comment after the game was very telling. He said that he noticed the goalkeeper move forward so he adjusted his shot. This is very mature for a young player. Goalkeepers are trained to “steal a yard” as soon as the shooter puts his head down for the shot. This helps to cut the angle and also changes the picture that the shooter has after his last look.

Horvath, the 22 year old goalkeeper, also made an interesting comment about the easy

George Vecsey

11/15/2017 07:09:46 pm

Alan great to hear from you., You know the game because you played it and are still coaching it.....at 80, I believe. Good on you.
The best comparison for soccer is with basketball. A few kids can compete in a playground...one on one...working on moves. I see kids, not athletic, practicing pro moves. Why not? But kids test each other in hoops. I played at PS 178 in Queens against high school and college players, -- and PS nearby 26 was known as the better hoops playground. Just sticking on the court against vastly better players is a lesson. Young soccer players are always being beaten down from trying stuff. But now the German model -- proper football early -- is at least enlightened.
Alan, thanks for your knowledge and participation.
GV

Comments are closed.

QUOTES

Measuring Covid Deaths, by David Leonhardt. July 17, 2023. NYT online.
The United States has reached a milestone in the long struggle against Covid: The total number of Americans dying each day — from any cause — is no longer historically abnormal….

After three horrific years, in which Covid has killed more than one million Americans and transformed parts of daily life, the virus has turned into an ordinary illness.

The progress stems mostly from three factors:
First, about three-quarters of U.S. adults have received at least one vaccine shot.
Second, more than three-quarters of Americans have been infected with Covid, providing natural immunity from future symptoms. (About 97 percent of adults fall into at least one of those first two categories.)
Third, post-infection treatments like Paxlovid, which can reduce the severity of symptoms, became widely available last year.
“Nearly every death is preventable,” Dr. Ashish Jha, who was until recently President Biden’s top Covid adviser, told me. “We are at a point where almost everybody who’s up to date on their vaccines and gets treated if they have Covid, they rarely end up in the hospital, they almost never die.”

That is also true for most high-risk people, Jha pointed out, including older adults — like his parents, who are in their 80s — and people whose immune systems are compromised. “Even for most — not all but most —immuno-compromised people, vaccines are actually still quite effective at preventing against serious illness,” he said. “There has been a lot of bad information out there that somehow if you’re immuno-compromised that vaccines don’t work.”

That excess deaths have fallen close to zero helps make this point: If Covid were still a dire threat to large numbers of people, that would show up in the data.

One point of confusion, I think, has been the way that many Americans — including we in the media — have talked about the immuno-compromised. They are a more diverse group than casual discussion often imagines.

Most immuno-compromised people are at little additional risk from Covid — even people with serious conditions, such as multiple sclerosis or a history of many cancers. A much smaller group, such as people who have received kidney transplants or are undergoing active chemotherapy, face higher risks.

Covid’s toll, to be clear, has not fallen to zero. The C.D.C.’s main Covid webpage estimates that about 80 people per day have been dying from the virus in recent weeks, which is equal to about 1 percent of overall daily deaths.

The official number is probably an exaggeration because it includes some people who had virus when they died even though it was not the underlying cause of death. Other C.D.C. data suggests that almost one-third of official recent Covid deaths have fallen into this category. A study published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases came to similar conclusions.

Dr. Shira Doron, the chief infection control officer at Tufts Medicine in Massachusetts, told me that “age is clearly the most substantial risk factor.” Covid’s victims are both older and disproportionately unvaccinated. Given the politics of vaccination, the recent victims are also disproportionately
Republican and white.

Each of these deaths is a tragedy. The deaths that were preventable — because somebody had not received available vaccines and treatments — seem particularly tragic. (Here’s a Times guide to help you think about when to get your next booster shot.)
***

From the great Maureen Dowd:

As I write this, I’m in a deserted newsroom in The Times’s D.C. office. After working at home for two years during Covid, I was elated to get back, so I could wander around and pick up the latest scoop.
But in the last year, there has been only a smattering of people whenever I’m here, with row upon row of empty desks. Sometimes a larger group gets lured in for a meeting with a platter of bagels."

--- Dowd writes about the lost world of journalists clustered in newsrooms at all hours, smoking, drinking, gossipping, making phone calls, typing, editing.
***
"Putting out the paper," we called it.
Much more than nostalgia.
---https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/29/opinion/journalism-newsroom.html

I Bet Italy Qualifies for the World Cup in 2026

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