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New Odds Say Trump Won’t Last Four Years

1/12/2017

A private investigator I know (perhaps connected to the MI6?) has found current Ladbrokes odds of 11-10 that the impending President will not last four years. Here’s the article:

https://www.inverse.com/article/26292-donald-trump-impeachment-odds

Perhaps this is mere wishful thinking from people with a few bob to wager.

You could ask, what do the Brits know? They voted for Brexit, against their own self-interest. Still, maybe they are on to something.

Are American voters figuring out what they have done? The most recent Quinnipiac poll shows abysmal ratings for any incoming President. Here in P.T. Barnum’s America, some voters who hallucinated a fine religious gentleman or a successful businessman are having misgivings.

Here are the numbers:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/poll-trump-presidential-transition-approval-233412

I recently wrote that something would get the new guy within 18 months – his tiny attention span, blatant conflicts and legalities, or being 70 and overweight. (Have you seen the latest photos of that neck?) A sex tape would be fine, too.

Right now, a lot of people are preparing to demonstrate and lobby. At the same time, a friend in the Bay Area says she’s been crying since the election. I know somebody who has come down with a cursing affliction. Myself, I am hunkering down with a hard-covered book and classical music.

Our emotions seem as roiled in a different way as those of McConnell and Boehner and Cantor and Ryan were when an African-American was elected president. Everybody has their own private angst.

One of my favorite readers said he would cover my bet about 18 months. Put up or shut up, he said.

I don’t bet. But I do root against four years of this guy:

Looming President Mocking Reporter With a Condition.

Brian Savin

1/13/2017 11:40:30 am

What's with this odd fixation about time in office? Continuing to dwell on this subject is inappropriate and seems potentially dangerous. What insanity has overtaken people to come up with such subjects? You may get to like our new President. I'm warming up to him as he performs much better than I hoped. If you want, I'll give you a comparative primer on what he has already done. I suspect he will do great and deliver on very many disappointments of the last eight years, from jobs to healthcare to optimism. Our country is just fine and Americans across this diverse land from north to south chose well. Chicago-led politicians had their time in office, and America voted not to become Chicago. Good for us.
Sincerely,
Brian

George Vecsey

1/15/2017 11:45:20 am

Brian:
Chicago-led politicans?
One of the Daleys?
Rahn Emanuel?
Code word?
Example?
GV

Diane Tuman

1/13/2017 04:56:11 pm

Re: the comment: "You may get to like our new President." I doubt that is possible for anyone who cannot remove from their memories his regular disparagement of women, minorities, the disabled, immigrants, internationals, companies, veterans, children (yes, a crying baby), his political opponents and anyone who dared cross his path. I like my leaders to have a degree of respect and dignity for others. Yeah, I'm weird that way. Plus, the hypocrisy is mind-blowing. Drain the swamp? Nice little catch-phrase. Too bad he's blown that idea out of the water by appointing 5 -- count 'em - 5 Goldman Sachs folks worth millions along with a set of cabinet members that have been applauded by the KKK. And, what's the deal with his coziness with Russia? Nice bedfellows he keeps. He has avoided paying taxes, brags about his sexual conquests, disparages the media and carries on like a 6th-grader. No -- probably 4th grade. Sorry, but Trump has a LONG way to go to earn my respect. He is vile. I don't CARE that the stock market went up because it will certainly come crashing down when this fraud of a man is finally exposed. And we will all be witness - as long as you subscribe to FACTS and not your own narrative.

1/15/2017 11:50:20 am

Diane, thanks for the character reference for him.
"Vile" works.
The surveys say a bigger chunk of the country is down on him.
What did they miss the first time around?
G

Radie Nedlin

1/15/2017 08:47:30 am

There is a possibility that when Pres. Trump (very painful to type that) doesn't have things going as he would want the frustration will be so great that he will throw up his arms and quit. Ah for the simple things in life.

Hansen Alexander

1/19/2017 09:31:47 pm

Radie, I concur and have cited Jesse Ventura as an example to follow. He quit in two years as Governor of Minnesota. There is every reason and fact to believe that Trump wants to accomplish his agenda in Washington quickly, and thereafter spend most of his time in New York. I live in a security zone that sees a lot of helicopter traffic as security measures already.

George Vecsey

1/15/2017 11:53:27 am

Thanks for your comment. (First time?)
Trump is a bully. I don't think he was ever in a schoolyard, where you learn to get along.
When people explain how Congress and the federal bureaucracy work (or don't work), he will not understand, except throw his rattle in a corner and retreat. That's best-case scenario.

Hansen Alexander

1/16/2017 02:58:30 pm

George,

I think it more likely that Trump dies in office, instead of getting impeached.

In the same manner that the Fuhrer of Fifth Avenue refused to release his tax records (to hide the fact that he took illegal deductions on other people's money and he was under an IRS audit because of it), he refused to release his medical record. Why?

No presidential candidate, I believe, in the last 50 years, has refused to do either. Now that we know what the Fuhrer was hiding in his tax records, it is a fair question of what he is hiding in his medical records. If like most 70 year olds, he only has common ailments such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol, why not allow the voters to see the mundane results?

Is it only vanity and that to acknowledge any imperfections will turn him into a pumpkin from Cinderella in the eyes of his supporters?
Or his weight? He states on his website that he weighs 202 pounds, which is absurd based on the fact that I have seen him in person many times here in New York. He is a tall, big-boned man, with massive thighs and posterior, and even his well-tailored suits do a poor job of hiding his massive gut.

The possibility of stroke or heart attack seem realistic possibilities for a man of his obese stature.

On the other hand, the British article you leave the link to is inaccurate on the law. At least in Constitutional terms, a President is not supposed to be impeached for anything he did before being sworn in as President. So all the stuff with the Russians, etc, should be irrelevant in terms of impeachment. Obviously, however, his erratic and out of control behavior, which has continued unabated since his election, is something to be concerned with.
In addition, in the final hours of the Clinton impeachment Republican senators discussed a rape allegation many years before that appeared at the 11th hour in the proceedings.

Although Presidents have wide powers in executing foreign policy and the executive branch of government, they are not allowed to interfere with career employees, and clearly Trump has done that by asking for lists of people who have worked on projects he opposes.

George Vecsey

1/16/2017 04:43:20 pm

Hansen, agreed, they can't get him for being his ugly self with Billy Bush. But my understanding is, he could be in non-compliance with some financial rules the moment he takes the oath. Somebody I know has the fantasy that a few of the best lawyers in the land are ready to file suit PM on the 20th.
His jowls are frightening.
You know what Imus used to call him?
"Butter Butt."
GV

Hansen Alexander

1/16/2017 07:11:35 pm

Thanks, George, I don't know much, well anything, actually, about the non-compliance financial rules.

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Alan Rubin link

1/18/2017 04:39:08 pm

Our country will take a giant leap into the unknown when Donald Trump is inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States. on Friday January 20, 2017.

The problem is that he and the Republicans are behaving as if they won in a landslide and have a mandate. This is not the approach needed to unify a country where roughly one half is either pleased or agitated by any political decision or public comment.

Tom Friedman’s January 18, 2017 NYT article accurately addresses the concerns that many people have about a Trump presidency.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/18/opinion/retweeting-donald-trump.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region®ion=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region

At the end of the article Friedman references the movie “Invictus” as a guide for Trump to help our country heal.

"I’ve noted before that one of my favorite movies is “Invictus,” which tells how Nelson Mandela, when he became South Africa’s president, built trust with the white community. Shortly after Mandela took power, his sports advisers wanted to change the name and colors of the country’s famed rugby team — the almost all-white “Springboks” — to something more reflective of black African identity.

Mandela refused. He told his black aides that the key to making whites feel at home in a black-led South Africa was not uprooting all of their cherished symbols. “We have to surprise them with restraint and generosity,” said Mandela.

Most Americans are good-hearted people who are actually starved to feel united again. Many who voted against Trump would have given him a second look had he surprised them with generosity and grace. He did just the opposite. Sad."

Brian is correct in that we should give Trump a chance and not judge him until after he has been in office and has taken command.

However, that is where my agreement with Brian ends.

Although people have often arisen to the office, I do not expect this to be the case with Trump. His past statements and actions do not give any reason to expect a “pivot” to mature behavior and an understanding of issues.

The election is over and it is time to make the best of what we have. As enticing as it is to speculate about the length of Trump’s presidency, it is more important to take actions that would help ease the national divide and pressure congress to act more responsibly.

Dysfunction in congress has been building for at least twenty years, but the Republican’s strategy of being the party of NO for the past eight years of Obama’s presidency has contributed to today’s toxic politics.

About three weeks ago I heard Arlie Russell Hochschild discuss her book. “Strangers in Their Own Land: Anger and Morning on the American Right”.

I gained an understanding of why the tea party, the conservative right and many of those who normally voted Democratic were attracted to Trump’s message.

As I progressed through the book, a constant thought was, “what will many of Trump’s voters be feeling when he does not deliver on many of his promises? You can get a good feel of the book from the following NYT book review titled: “Why Do People Who Need Help From the Government Hate It So Much?”

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/25/books/review/strangers-in-their-own-land-arlie-russell-hochschild.html

I contacted Arlie to complement her on the book, but I also expressed a desire to enter into a dialog with one of the people she had gotten to know during her many visits over five years while researching the book. She was receptive to the idea and also introduced me to others who are active in many activities related to developing dialogs among people of differing views.

The Living Room Conversations organization is one example.

http://www.livingroomconversations.org/

It is counterproductive to only complain about things. If you are unhappy with the state of our country; get active and be involved. Many caring people doing a little adds up and leads to results.

Please contact me at [email protected] if you would like more information on ways to participate in our democracy.

“Make America Great Again” is a con-man’s slogan to gain votes. I do not believe Trump has any valid plan to accomplish this.

However, he is not alone.

Congress also has bought into what I call the “Great America” conspiracy that we are the best at almost everything. I say this out a profound love of my country and a concern that our political leaders are ignoring that the United States is not perfect and has been losing ground over the years relative to other developed nations and a few of the emerging ones.

It is sobering to review our world rankings:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-zuesse/how-the-us-performs-in-re_b_3080446.html

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New Odds Say Trump Won’t Last Four Years

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