Reviews

Why Germany Can Win This World Cup

6/8/2014

Short and Long of It for Bayern and Germany

Brazil did not win the World Cup as host in 1950 – Uruguay did -- and I’m not at all sure Brazil can win this time, either.

Six hosts have won the championship in 19 World Cups. However, despite being the five-time champion, with a huge stock of talent, and a superb coach, Brazil will be playing at home, during the most heightened political atmosphere I have ever seen at the eight World Cups I covered.

There are always issues at a World Cup, but this is different. In a time of instant social media, a rising generation of Brazilians has identified futebol and FIFA and its deceptively loopy president Sepp Blatter as part of the problem in contemporary Brazil.

Building roads and stadiums and upgrading hotels and airports for rich tourists has been linked with rising bus fares, disruptions in the favelas, and other indignities of modern life. The land of the beautiful game is questioning its patrimony.

Does that matter to the outcome of the World Cup? The Brazilian players will be sequestered, but not immune to cell-phone calls from wives and girlfriends, perhaps relaying news that their aunt was tear-gassed in her neighborhood or their uncle was hit over the head by police while crossing a street.

As professional as they are, the Brazilian players will be aware of divided feelings in their own land. This cannot help the concentration needed to survive a seven-match marathon following the brutal European season most of them endure. The injuries are mounting for almost all teams.

So I think Brazil could have trouble. I’m not sure the home-continent advantage (no European team has ever won in South America) will work for Argentina or Uruguay, either. I doubt Luis Suarez can stay on keel for 90 minutes much less seven matches. And Lionel Messi is at his best getting passes from Andrés Iniesta at Barcelona, but that smooth playmaker plays for Spain in the World Cup.

What about the European squads? I love Spain. Who doesn’t, in this generation? It has brought passing and patience and brains to a heightened level. But Spain may have played one too many dog years in winning two Euros and one World Cup.

Among the other European powers, there is sometimes room for a different face in the semifinals – Turkey or Greece, lightning in a bottle, a decade ago; Belgium now, or maybe Portugal, but always Italy and now Spain have the muscle memory of playing deep into the World Cup. That is vital in the endurance contest. The Buffons and Piques have been there.

Remember the wonderful quip by the English captain Gary Lineker after losing to West Germany in 1990 in Italy?

“Football is a simple game; twenty-two men chase a ball for ninety minutes and at the end, the Germans always win.”

Quite a compliment, under the circumstances. And perhaps relevant again.

Germany has been coming on since 2006 at home when the Mannschaft taught Germans to wave their flags and wear national jerseys and cheer in public. There is a straight line from Jürgen Klinsmann and Joachim Löw to Löw’s semifinalists in 2010 in South Africa to the new Deutschland 3.0 version this time.

The multi-ethnic and talented German squad is ready to win for reasons as tall as Schweinsteiger (Bastian) and as short as Lahm (Philip.) Germany has a good young keeper in Manuel Neuer and a terrific distributor in Mesut Özil, the first major German player from its large Turkish population, and Thomas Müller, plus Miroslav Klose, who scores goals better with the national team than his club, because he fits in so well, because the ball is often right there for him.

If this sounds like some old national stereotype, please excuse, but from admiring German squads over the decades, I think Germany has the talent and mental strength to go into Brazil, concentrate, and get through seven matches. Gary Lineker will be right, again.

Your thoughts?

Deluxe

6/8/2014 03:08:45 am

With Reuss injured, you still think that's the case?

George Vecsey

6/8/2014 05:59:54 am

Honestly, I cannot judge the player. But my sense is that Germany is so deep, it can replace almost anybody.
The US best-case is catching Germany with 6 points and using its reserves. Not much of a best-case, in my opinion.
Am I underestimating Reus? GV

John McDermott

6/8/2014 04:29:22 am

Germany is always strong, the Italians always start slowly and somehow are usually still around in the later stages. But this time I think the South Americans are going to be the story. And Spain, again. I too doubt whether Brazil has everything it needs to bring the Cup home. Did you see their labored performance against Serbia the other day? My dark horse is Uruguay, though logic would seem to dictate an Argentina-Brazil final. I was in the Maracana for a Brazil-Argentina friendly(if such a game can ever be considered a friendly), in 1998, a couple of months before the World Cup in France. Argentina 1, Brazil 0. It wasn't pretty. Argentina-Brazil would be a dream Final, but it might not be pretty this time either.

Another point, about Luis Suarez. He's capable of being the player of the tournament. As for staying "on keel", well Zidane was red-carded in both the 2002 and 2006 World Cups where France won and finished runners-up. I guess it depends a lot on WHEN you get the red card. But Suarez has matured and been a model citizen this season at Liverpool so I really don't anticipate any craziness(or cannibalism) from him at the World Cup.

One more note: watch out for Russia to do well. Capello has quietly done a masterful job of turning things around there and building a good solid team. England's loss...

Joyce B. Lohse link

6/8/2014 07:12:54 am

George - Your World Cup book looks great - I'm putting it on my read list. I just wrote a review of your Stan Musial biography on my blog: http://joyce4books.wordpress.com/ and thought you would like to see it. I am a journalist/biographer too, and it really touched me.

George Vecsey

6/8/2014 08:56:27 am

Joyce: What a lovely note. Thank you for finding my site...and my Musial book. As soon as the World Cup ends, and I start reading for pleasure again, I will get one of your books. In an extended family of people with Spencer as their middle or last names, maybe I will check out your Spencer guy. You'll see the autobiographical sections of my soccer book -- the stuff about being in Essen in 2006 on the anniversary of my aunt's trial...GV

Andy Tansey

6/9/2014 11:40:15 am

In an effort to make "8WC" as recognizeable as "CR7," I am happy to report that our family's copy (I know - I shoulda bought 2!) was back safely in Manaus this morning and should be in Natal any minute.

I loved the retort of English commentator Martin Tyler, who is nothing if not dry (to his colour-man's comment after Peru's 'keeper spilled to Phil Jagielka for a knock-in, that Gi. Buffon wouldn't drop the ball like that in Manaus): "He'll surely have sweaty palms in Manaus."

AlanRubin link

6/8/2014 01:24:49 pm

George

You are correct in that Brazil 2014 is a World Cup like no other, but not in a positive joyful sense. The sheer magnitude of the waste, corruption and harm to Brazilians is beyond belief—except that it is all too real. As you suggested, it already is becoming a diversion to the Brazilian National Team as some members have been publically critical.

John, Uruguay is also my dark horse. They played well in 2010 and are always competitive.

Nice web site Joyce. Getting below the surface of history is both fascinating and rewarding. Some of your books may be of interest to my history study group.

Andy Tansey

6/9/2014 12:55:54 am

There’s a lot in this exchange! Just some random thoughts stimulated by various points:

It's all been decided. According to a FIFA 14 video/computer game simulation, Germany wins, but that match may have been played before Reus's injury.

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/germany-will-win-the-world-cup-according-to-fifa-simulation/1100-6420090/

Red cards and prominent players: Suarez’s game-saving handling vs. Ghana, leading to Ghana’s missed penalty kick was, retrospectively, praised as a brilliant act of desperation allowing Uruguay to go on to win on KFTM. (It never should have happened as a Ghana player should have been ruled offside in the preceding sequence of touches.) Who can forget Rooney, whom CR7 said he would get sent off which, on TV, looked borne out? English are supposed to Stay Calm and Stay on the Pitch. Raheem Sterling’s tackle vs. Merseyside rival Antonio Valencia in last week’s “friendly”? Let's not forget the wild-card factor, referees.

A funny commercial by Aididas features Zidane and Beckham (who was goaded into his famous send-off by Simeone). Either link should take you to the video, and this first has a news(?) article to go along:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2651173/Gareth-Bale-Zinedine-Zidane-David-Beckham-skills-Beckingham-Palace-joined-Lucas-Moura.html

OR

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDUIuzIwwTU

George Vecsey

6/9/2014 01:12:02 am

Andy, thanks. I do a whole riff in the book about Young Beckham and Rooney. I think I ask: "What is it with these guys?" You and John both point out that Zidane was carded for striking out in 98 (stepped on a guy's head) and 2006 (Materazzi). And what about Leonardo elbowing Tab Ramos' eye socket in 94? In broad daylight?
Tough sport.
Thanks for the links. GV

Alan Rubin link

6/9/2014 03:01:15 pm

Andy,

I have the Ghana-Uruguay handball sequence on my web site in slow motion. It is longer than I would like, but it is on my list of items to upgrade now that I have four additional years of editing experience.

http://www.understandingsoccer.com/rule-14-penalty-kicks.html

You need to scroll down a bit to locate the video.

I do not have the offside in the sequence, but the Uruguay keeper came out and missed the punch.

A deliberate handball on a sure goal should not be a PK as it can be missed, which Ghana did. It should be treated the same as goal-trending in basketball, a score. The defense should not benefit from stopping a sure goal.

The video clip also shows the shootout. Some of the Ghana players appeared a bit too casual, but they just finished 120 minutes of play.

I’m not an advocate of keepers anticipating right or left. This leaves two-thirds of the net open. Statistics show that a significant percentage of PK’s are scored in the middle third of the goal. Keepers fair better when they react to the shot. This is evident in the video. A little cheating (gamesmanship) also helps.

Joyce Lohse link

6/9/2014 03:54:33 am

Thanks, George! I love sports, but I know baseball much more than soccer, although I am following this thread with much interest. All I can add is that 20 years ago this week, we flew from Germany to Dulles in DC with the German Soccer Team aboard. My son was wearing a World Cup shirt and the guys graciously signed it for him. Yah! A fun experience. Now I will fade out, Joyce

George Vecsey

6/9/2014 04:06:53 am

Joyce, don't fade out. I have a modest little community that writes in to this site, and you seem to match the job description.
Either way, enjoy the WC...and keep writing. GV

John McDermott

6/9/2014 03:54:22 am

I've only recently discovered comedian John Oliver on HBO. Last night he did his take on FIFA and it's cuttingly hilarious and brilliantly on-target: http://www.101greatgoals.com/blog/comedian-john-oliver-has-produced-the-most-awesome-rant-about-fifa-you-will-ever-see/

Joyce Lohse link

6/9/2014 04:11:18 am

lol Thanks, GV -- Enjoying and learning! JL

Alan Rubin link

6/9/2014 10:41:29 am

Eric Adelson of Yahoo Sports recently posted and optimistic article, "Group of Death Not Looking As Daunting for US just Days Before the World Cup" Is this just wishfull thinking or are the soccer stars beginning to align?

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/group-of-death-not-looking-as-formidable-for-u-s--these-days-021823838-soccer.html

I still cling to the possibility of the USMNT making the "knockout" stage.

George Vecsey

6/9/2014 10:51:28 am

John Schaefer of New Sounds on WNYC (just had a nice interview from him) is the second person to say how much the loss of Reus could hurt Germany. John's been watching World Cups longer than I have. Look, third game...second string...don;t need the points. It could happen.

John McDermott

6/9/2014 10:58:22 am

Just remember Germany vs. Austria, 1982. I'm not saying anything that blatant would ever be allowed to occur now(after all, we are talking about a game, not the selection of a WC host country!). If Germany is already through and wants to rest some players, who knows? But somehow I have to believe that Joachim Löw wants to beat Jürgen and will put out the best team available that day, at least until they are up by a couple of goals.

George Vecsey

6/9/2014 11:48:54 am

I saw that match on TV at Wimbledon, en route to Barcelona. What a farce.

Altenir Silva

6/9/2014 02:41:10 pm

The Germans were known to play a tough soccer without much beauty. And yet, were always in the finals. Now they are playing beautiful soccer, added a strong tactic. I agree with you, the Germans will win this Cup.

Here in Brazil we have many people rooting against our team. Corruption and bad politics are responsible. By the way, the Brazilian fans love more your teams (like Flamengo, Corinthians, Grêmio, Cruzeiro, Vasco, Fluminense, Santos, Palmeiras, etc.) than the Brazilian national team.

Since 1998, in the World Cup in France - with a mysterious and unexplained game in the final against France – the Brazilians lost faith in the national team.

So, my maternal grandfather was German, okay if Germany wins.

Altenir Silva (from Brazil)

George Vecsey

6/9/2014 03:20:08 pm

Funny how one can have more than one nationality for football.
Met a woman at a reception the other night -- born in Uruguay, living in US for decades, but lights up when talking about Suarez and Uruguay.
As a nation of immigrants, we can connect to other countries. And Altenir, loyal Brazilian, also feels connected to German team. Interesting.
GV

P.C.Chapman

6/10/2014 08:07:40 am

George,
As your sports/physics expert thoughts on new Adidas Brazuca ball.
Contrary to Jubalini this ball (with thousands of tiny raised dots on the surface) will be akin to a Whitey Ford curveball after being introduced to his belt buckle!.
Best

George Vecsey

6/10/2014 09:25:14 am

Dear PC: I can only quote the noted aero-physicist Bruce Arena, when he was asked about the new ball being used in 2002. (Everybody hated that one, too.)
I tell this story in my book. Bruce looked at us, and in his Noo Yawk accent he said, "It's a BAWL."
I don't know. Just don't know. Balls swerve. The old ones were like sacks of wet cement. Keepers always hate the ball.
And for the record: It wasn't Whitey's belt. It was Elston Howard's. (Or Yogi's, or John Blanchard's.) The catcher does the filing of the buckle, in the clubhouse. GV

P.C.Chapman

6/11/2014 04:00:17 am

George,
Yes, I had forgotten that it was the catcher who did the required handiwork.

Alan Rubin link

6/10/2014 02:44:16 pm

Keepers liked the balls of the late 40's and into the 50's. They were leather with the stitches recessed varying amounts. Gloves were not worn back then and your fingers could get a good grip on the seams.

Peter Cech recently commented that he would prefer to play without gloves and he favored the leather balls with the seams.

George Vecsey

6/10/2014 02:52:19 pm

My friend Alan was/is a keeper -- for Lehigh in late 50's, and now as a teacher of the position. GV

Alan Rubin link

6/11/2014 11:50:52 am

My friend and I attended the Brazil-Portugal friendly at Gillette Stadium on September 10, 2013. Joel is a graduate of my OLLI Understanding Soccer class and has become an avid fan.

We had been to several NE Revolution games during the summer, but I alerted Joel that he was in for something unlike anything else. We had meeting with the Boston Breakers in Boston earlier in the morning, so we went to Gillette Stadium early. We finished a quick lunch a mile and a half from the stadium at 4 PM, but it took us over an hour to get into the parking lot.

Then the fun started. It had the feel of a World Cup and all the fan craziness. The Boston area has significant Brazilian and Portuguese populations, but the parking lot was a sea of yellow and green shirts. Although there was still four hours until game time, most of the main lots were filled and fans were partying. It was not your normal tailgating, they were dancing everywhere. Our ears are still recovering from the noise. We parked next to a pickup truck whose open bed was wall to wall speakers aimed skyward. Our car was shaking with us in it.

A bank of speakers about 30 feet wide and 15 feet high (this might be under estimated) at the part of the lot furthest from the stadium near the access road was going full blast. You could not hear yourself talk standing right outside the stadium. I had to call my Rev contact to arrange meeting her at half time. We could barely hear each other even though I called from inside a port-a-john; and even there I could feel the vibrations.

It did get a little better once inside the stadium, mainly because there were no speakers other than to address system. People were just so excited and shouted throughout the game.
The place went nuts when Pele made an appearance.

Incidentally, it was a great game with Brazil winning 3-1. I told Joel that although it was unofficial, he had just attended a World Cup game.

George, on a personal note—Good Morning Pittsfield, both FM and TV, went quite well. ESPN has yet picked up my option, but it triggered another event.

The hour long broadcast was arranged through OLLI, which is affiliated with Berkshire Community College. The president of BCC liked the concept of my OLLI Understanding the 2014 World Cup class and this morning’s promotion of the World Cup and OLLI, she quickly arranged for a BCC World Cup 101 lecture to be held on June 18th at 4 PM. I will expand upon my class and this morning’s show. It will be free, open to the public and run from 4 – 6 PM. It will be heavily promoted in the Berkshire Eagle, local newspaper, and all of BCC’s social media networks. “Eight World Cups” has will be recommended reading material.

My son Josh, who you will meet at the Brazil-Croatia game, commented that I’m now on my third soccer career. So far I have not earned a dime, but the fun is priceless.

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Why Germany Can Win This World Cup

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